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	<title>World Political Blog &#187; Georgia</title>
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		<title>The West&#8217;s dilemna over relations with Russia</title>
		<link>http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/22/the-wests-dilemna-over-relations-with-russia/</link>
		<comments>http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/22/the-wests-dilemna-over-relations-with-russia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 20:21:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ashish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/22/the-wests-dilemna-over-relations-with-russia/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>This is a mighty strange situation for the West to be in. Ever since the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, there has been the feeling in the Western Countries that Russia could be a strategic partner, one that shares the democratic values of the West and will be an effective partner. Initially, things seemed [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a mighty strange situation for the West to be in. Ever since the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, there has been the feeling in the Western Countries that Russia could be a strategic partner, one that shares the democratic values of the West and will be an effective partner. Initially, things seemed to be going in a different way. Under Boris Yeltsin, Russia started going through political and social turmoil, and it seemed to be a decaying country (with high inflation, potential leakage of arms and nuclear material, negative to zero growth, corruption, mafia, and so on). And then came in this former KGB man, Vladimir Putin, a person who saw the death of the Soviet Union as a disaster, and who bemoaned the loss of status of Russia. By himself, he could not have invented a new powerful Russia, but he got the benefit of Russia&#8217;s growth as an oil and gas producer, coupled with increasing prices.<br />
This growth of Russia was not in the way that the US and other countries thought. Russia would go the way that Vladimir Putin wanted it to, and he managed to sell his vision of a resurgent Russia to the population as well, thus diminishing the possibility of any successful internal opposition. The same support also allowed him to stamp away any perceived opposition, including independent media, and other opponents (an example was the trial and imprisonment of the oil tycoon, Mikhail Khodorkovsky who was starting to stand upto Mr. Putin). The net result was a system where only support to Valdimir Putin was allowed.</p>
<p><span id="more-98"></span><br />
At the same time, Russia&#8217;s external environment was changing. The former republics of the USSR (except for a few) were all moving off into independent trajectories, and worryingly for the Kremlin, closer to the West and to NATO. Russia has always considered these republics to be the sort of buffer zone for the motherland, and is not likely to easily accept the borders of NATO extending to these territories. In addition, the former Communist countries outside the USSR have also moved closer to NATO, putting more pressure on the Kremlin. The proposed measure of the US to have missile defense establishments of many of these countries (currently a deal signed with Poland) is making Russia see totally red. In this context, the provocation of the Georgian first step and the all out Russian response shook the US and European countries; further, Russia is not easily giving in, only hesitatingly accepting a ceasefire, and on its terms. All this now leads to a debate in the West about how should they <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/19/oakley.georgia.russia.analysis/" target="_blank">deal with Russia</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>
What do you do with an angry bear? Growl back at him, face him down or threaten to take away his honey? It is a debate the NATO countries are patently having trouble resolving. The 26 member nations of NATO agree that the Russian invasion of Georgia in response to Tbilisi&#8217;s military action in South Ossetia, whatever the provocation, seriously overstepped the mark. But the meeting of NATO&#8217;s foreign ministers to discuss what to do about an increasingly assertive, not to say belligerent, Moscow has served only to demonstrate the inability of the alliance to come to firm conclusions and to take decisive action.<br />
The NATO nations remain divided between those who ache to take a swipe at Vladimir Putin and Dimitri Medvedev and the pragmatists who say that NATO, the EU and the U.S. simply have to find a way of doing business with a new-style Russia that has not, as the West had hoped, come to share their values and which has been emboldened by its new energy riches to demand a controlling influence on the countries close to its borders. But what sign was there of a slap over the wrist for Russia, let alone a &#8220;concrete step&#8221; that deprived Moscow of its easy-odds victory? If the toughest warning Europe can offer in the present situation is to threaten a meeting of EU heads of government to review relations with Russia, then Messrs. Putin and Medvedev will hardly be phoning their medics to ask for pills to help them get their beauty sleep.
</p></blockquote>
<p>Russia has drawn a line in the sand with its current campaign in Georgia. Further, it has totally opposed the US-Poland missile defense deal, and is in the position of making international cooperation that the US desires much more difficult. It will also suffer, but can make things much more difficult for the West overall. Threatening Russia is not going to get the West anywhere, unless it is prepared to suffer the consequences.</p>
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		<title>Russia signs cease-fire accord in Georgia</title>
		<link>http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/16/russia-signs-cease-fire-accord-in-georgia/</link>
		<comments>http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/16/russia-signs-cease-fire-accord-in-georgia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Aug 2008 17:57:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ashish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[War]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/16/russia-signs-cease-fire-accord-in-georgia/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The fight over Georgia has been seen as having 2 bigger objectives; 1. Russia wants to ensure that it is seen as the Big Brother of the neighborhood, and is willing to put force to ensure that this happens 2. Georgia has been seen as a region that was being projected as an alternative route [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The fight over Georgia has been seen as having 2 bigger objectives;<br />
1. Russia wants to ensure that it is seen as the Big Brother of the neighborhood, and is willing to put force to ensure that this happens<br />
2. Georgia has been seen as a region that was being projected as an alternative route for an oil pipeline that would bypass Russian territory<br />
Both of these are issues that impact Russian interests pretty strongly. For a country that used to consider wide swaths of territory in Europe and Asia Minor as its area of influence, the movement by many of these areas towards greater integration with NATO and the United States must be galling. Already, US based in Turkey, Iraq, and Afghanistan ward off Russian influence in the strategic oil-rich regions of Asia. Combine this with the movements by states such as Poland, Ukraine, etc to move to greater integration with NATO must be real painful to the strategic community in Moscow. And then the movement in a region that is actually under Russian control (granted to it by the Commonwealth of Independent States &#8211; CIS); South Ossetia, a region in Georgia that is over-whelming tilted towards Russia. Georgia invaded South Ossetia, and launched a bombing campaign that started killing people in the capital of South Ossetia. This would have just been the motive for Russian interests to start a reverse action &#8211; they marched in troops, tanks, and even fighter jets and pushed the Georgian forces out of South Ossetia. </p>
<p><span id="more-94"></span><br />
This much movement must have been expected by the West, but this was not it. Russian forced moved out from these territories and moved towards the strategic city of Gori, a city that sits on the central part of Georgia. Georgians considered this move as an attempt to split the country into 2 separate sections and hollered mightily, expecting action from their allies (the West and the United States). The United Nations was out since Russia would have vetoed any such resolution. And the United States depends on Russia to help it on Iran (something that is more important than the action in Georgia), so except for calling for a cease-fire and speaking about how this action of Russia would have far-reaching consequences, it was not able to do anything greater.<br />
It was Russia that is deciding the course of actions, and one is waiting to see how its other interest, of preventing an oil pipeline that would remove Russian influence from oil shipments will play through. In this case, the West can only try and hope that it will be able to influence Russia, and even though a cease-fire is now signed, <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/16/europe/16georgia.php" target="_blank">Russian troops are not currently retreating</a>: </p>
<blockquote><p>
A day after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice went close to the front lines in Georgia to press for immediate withdrawal of Russian forces there, the Kremlin announced Saturday that it had approved a framework for a cease-fire. On the ground in Georgia on Saturday, the situation remained largely unchanged, with Russian troops occupying large swaths of territory. The Kremlin gave no indication when they would be pulled out.<br />
The six-point arrangement had been negotiated by the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, but a dispute soon followed over one of its provisions, which the Russians had interpreted as allowing them to maintain a military presence on Georgian territory outside the two disputed enclaves, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The vagueness of the original provision appeared to have allowed the Russians to occupy Gori even after the two countries had agreed to the cease-fire framework. A senior Western diplomat in Tbilisi, speaking on the condition of anonymity under normal diplomatic rules, contended that the Russian military maneuvers near the capital on Friday around the time of the Rice visit were deliberate. The diplomat said troops were &#8220;moving around to weaken the civilian administration and perhaps create the conditions for political upheaval down the line.&#8221;
</p></blockquote>
<p>For all the bluster that Rice and other leaders could raise, it was clear that the initiative lay with Russia. Both Russian Prime Minister (and true force behind the throne) Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev had raised the stakes very beginning with the fast deployment of Russian forces, with some pointed comments and speeches, and with not stopping at the border of South Ossetia, but taking the fight inside Georgia. </p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Russia and Georgia &#8211; the conflict</title>
		<link>http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/12/russia-and-georgia-the-conflict/</link>
		<comments>http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/12/russia-and-georgia-the-conflict/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:26:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ashish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Dictator]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[War]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://worldpoliticalblog.com/2008/08/12/russia-and-georgia-the-conflict/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Soviet Union was once a mighty empire, controlling large chunks of land in Europe and Asia, and giving the West a might enemy. And then it all fell apart; the individual states (many of them incorporated by force) wanted their freedom, and Boris Yeltsin wanted his own Russia to rule, and so the Soviet [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Soviet Union was once a mighty empire, controlling large chunks of land in Europe and Asia, and giving the West a might enemy. And then it all fell apart; the individual states (many of them incorporated by force) wanted their freedom, and Boris Yeltsin wanted his own Russia to rule, and so the Soviet empire ended. And then it fell into decline. And then rose a strongman out of all this, one who had the blood of the all-powerful intelligence agency KGB running through him. On his own he could not do anything; however, he was lucky. Russia had large tracts of oil and gas, and had turned into a large exporter of these, bringing in revenue, and helping regrow the power.<br />
However, in the midst of all this, the world did not stay still. Many of the former Soviet republics did not stay still, moving towards the West (and seemingly away from the clutches of their former all-powerful dictatorial landlord), striking closer relationships with them. At the same time, like any major power (and one that remembers all too well how powerful it is), Russia grew increasingly resentful of this emergence of the West in an area that it treats as its backyard (a close equivalent would be if Mexico suddenly became more hostile to the US and very very friendly towards Russia or China). This may well seem normal for a powerful country to treat its immediate neighbors as its areas of influence, but not so for the country so dominated. Ask Finland, that has fought wars with Russia in the past over this dominance, and ask Afghanistan that does not like being called as an area of Pakistani influence, as if it has no entity of its own.</p>
<p><span id="more-93"></span><br />
So, when Ukraine tried to show itself as more hostile towards Russia, there was a sudden crippling blockade of the oil and gas it gets from Russia; and now Georgia. Ever since President Mikheil Saakashvili came to office and had a campaign of getting back the pro-Russian provinces of South Ossetia and a second separatist area, Abkhazia, Russia has been seething. It already knows that it is much more powerful. The US wants its support in the initiatives against Iran and North Korea, and cannot afford to antagonize Russia. And the Georgian leader gave Vladimir Putin just that chance. He tried to take one of the provinces, South Ossetia back, and met such overwhelming Russian force (without any check by any other party) that Western leaders were worried that Putin may be trying to gain more geographic control inside Georgia. Right now, things are moving towards a cease-fire, but Russia must have intended this as a show of force to Georgia and others, that they are truly helpless when faced with this great bear.</p>
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