World Political Blog » Iran

Iranian protesters could get the death penalty

Ashish — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 14:01:58 +0000

The conflict in Iran between the moderates and the conservatives has been ongoing for some time now. However, it really flared up after the June elections, when there was a dispute and the incumbent, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was granted a victory over main opposition candidate Mir Hossein Moussavi. The conservatives have used all the weapons at their disposal – they have used the religious power of Supreme Leader Khameini who threatened the protesters with stern action, they used the Revolutionary Guards and the Basiji militia to severely crack down on the protesters, many of those arrested were tortured and many died under torture (the torture grew so much that the Supreme Leader had to order the closing of one particularly reviled detention center), and yet the protests continue.
The surprising thing is that Moussavi is not a reformist in the shape of Khatami; he was part of the Government in the early days of the regimes soon after the revolution, and would have been involved in the repression that happened during those periods. However, Iran is now a state where there is a battle between a Government that has the Revolutionary Guards as one of the major factors of power, where the clergy are struggling to ensure their dominance, and where a younger population is looking to get more openness.
Now, the Government is wielding the threat even more strongly. Even 6 months after the election, there is a huge amount of feelings in the country about the election that gets expressed in huge demonstrations, even though people know that they are facing entrenched forces. On the occasion of Ashura, a Shiite religious holiday on the 27th of December, 2009, there was again a huge demonstration, and this was despite the preparation of the police and para-military forces to stop these demonstrations. In the fight, there were apparently protesters who died at the hands of security forces, and many more were arrested. Now the Iranian Government is claiming that since the protesters were doing their fighting on a holy day, they were effectively committing an act against God, and acts against god deserve the death penalty.
One would laugh, were it not for the fact that the regime faces a huge crisis, and is prepared to go to any levels to repress these protests. As a result, it is not totally rules out that the Government will indeed press for the death penalty and this will be supported by the judiciary. It is also true that the Iranian people are totally alone in this, with no Government pressing their support, no international human rights group fighting for these people.

Iran nuclear issue: Inspection by the UN of the new complex

Ashish — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:14:05 +0000

The most complex problem in international politics today is with respect to Iran. And in this, the situation is not even about the recent elections, or the divided political powers in Iran; it is about the Iranian nuclear program. Iran has consistently maintained that it has a peaceful nuclear program, and this is allowed by the NPT and by the safe-guards under it. Most of the world believes that this is a cover, and the real intention of the Iranians is to bluster and negotiate while moving to a real nuclear weapons capability. Further complicating details is that the nuclear program is a nationalistic program in Iran, which sees the Israelis as having a very powerful local presence, based on their nuclear devices. In addition, there are 2 more nuclear capable states in the locality – India and Pakistan. All 3 nuclear states have got off pretty easily, and so has North Korea, and so Iran feels that it can build one. The Iranian nuclear program is under the control of the Supreme Leader, the cleric Ayatollah Khameini, and also under the control of the conservative President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
For many years now, there has been a concerted effort by the western powers, France, Britain, Germany, and the US about how to control and rollback the Iranian effort, but going the sanctions route with the UN Security Council supporting the sanctions is not easy, since Russia and China both have stakes in Iran, and are resisting efforts to have tougher sanctions.

There are also a lot of games being played in the background, with the western countries having spy rings inside Iran, and one of these spy rings detected the presence of another Iranian secret nuclear enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom. This detection forced the Iranians to announce the presence of this nuclear facility in a letter to the IAEA, and there are complex legalities about whether having a secret facility like this was proper or not (Iran claimed that it only had to announce once it reached a certain stage of activity). This announcement however raised more suspicions about the motives of the Iranians, and whether there were more such facilities that were hidden in the country. The Western countries are also racing against another unstated deadline, possible Israeli activity. Israel sees Iran as a deadly enemy, and may act militarily to destroy the Iranian facilities, something that would dramatically escalate tensions. Other powers in the area, such as Saudi Arabia would also be uncomfortable if Iran went ahead and built a bomb (link to article):

ElBaradei urged Iran to submit to more comprehensive inspections because its nuclear program is so advanced. “It would help the agency to have Iran subscribing again to our regulations that allow us to be informed of the construction of nuclear facilities as early as possible,” he said. He also pressed Iran to give the IAEA “the authority for more information, for access to more locations that would enable the agency to provide assurances not only about declared nuclear activity in Iran but also about possible undeclared activities.”
Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili met with William J. Burns, the U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, a senior U.S. official and a diplomatic source confirmed to CNN. The men discussed Iran’s nuclear program, a sit-down described as the first face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Iran over the program. International powers want inspectors to have free access to Iran’s new facility and have threatened more sanctions if the Islamic republic doesn’t change its ways.

Nuclear issue over Iran – another attempt at dialogue

Ashish — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 10:11:27 +0000

The nuclear ambitions of Iran well known, and the attempts by some of the significant world powers to stop these nuclear efforts (mostly in a futile effort) are also well known by now. Iran has most likely done the calculation that it will be able to pursue its nuclear quest through a measure of playing one country against another along with a dogged determination to go the full path. Further, given the difficult power structure of Iran where the Supreme Leader and the President both represent power centers, it is hard to figure out who is fully in command (although it is believed that in any decision making, the Supreme Leader will prevail; but the recent political chaos also showed that the President has cultivated the Revolutionary Guards and the military to get more power). Iran also believes that the only way for it to project itself as the natural leader of the region is to get nuclear weapons (especially since its given enemy, Israel, has nuclear weapons and advanced delivery systems). Iran also stands alone politically in the region (except for Iraq), since the other countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, etc, all are more or less against Iran (they are all Sunni countries while Iran is a Shia dominated country).

And yet, the countries interacting with Iran over its nuclear stance (primarily the countries in the UN Security Council) are unable to make a decision on how to proceed. Iran has always had the stance that it is using nuclear energy for purposes of generating an alternative to fossil fuels for electricity, a stand that other countries refuse to buy, and yet this must be one of the longest running attempts to have a discussion (link to article):

The U.S. and European Union called for a meeting with Iran to discuss stalled nuclear talks, brushing aside the Persian Gulf country’s failure to mention the dispute over its atomic program in a proposal for negotiations. The EU request for a meeting came in response to the Iranian plan to tie any discussion of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East to talks on the future of the Palestinian people and changes in the structure of the United Nations Security Council.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki presented a five-page document to China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K. and U.S. in Tehran on Sept. 9. The proposals are a response to Western concern about the atomic work, said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who denies allegations by the U.S. and major allies that Iran’s nuclear-power development is cover for the production of weapons. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told worshippers in Tehran yesterday that Iran must “stand firm” in the nuclear dispute, saying it has the right to the technology, Agence France-Presse reported.

The members of the Security Council and the EU have not been able to come to an agreement about how to deal with Iran, given that Russia and China have not agreed with the western position. And of course, there is widespread problems even in the US, and the EU about trying to move ahead with a military and hard decision.

Iran / Syria backed groups stoke conflict in Lebanon

Ashish — Fri, 09 May 2008 09:37:14 +0000

For a number of years now, Lebanon has been suffering the impact of civil war. In the 80′s, there was a wide-spread war that had turned Beirut into a shell town, although the current war is a different war. This is a fight for power between the various neighboring powers seeking to get their influence and power into a better position in this strategically important nation. Lebanon is suffering from a fight between the 2 divisions within Islam – the Shia and the Sunni. Iran has been the leader in terms of a large nation with Shia control (and projects major influence in the other majority Shia nation – Iraq). Iran supplies the Hezbollah movement with financial and armed support and in turn the movement helps project Iranian & Syrian influence in the region. On the other side is the US backed forces of Saad Hariri who have more international support and support from the Sunni powers in the region, including Saudi Arabia. This battle for influence is now manifesting itself in bitter armed fight in Lebanon and in the capital city of Beirut:

Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shiite opposition gunmen seized control of several Beirut neighborhoods from Sunni foes loyal to the U.S.-backed government on Friday. In a sign of the collapse of the pro-government forces in the face of the onslaught by the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal groups in the Lebanese capital’s Muslim sector, the TV station of top Sunni politician Saad Hariri’s Future Movement went off the air and the offices of its affiliated al-Mustaqbal newspaper on the edge of the city was set afire by opposition gunmen, according to TV footage and Hezbollah.

The scenes were a grim reminder of Lebanon’s devastating 1975-90 civil war in which 150,000 were killed and parts of the city wrecked. Factions threw up roadblocks and checkpoints dividing Beirut into sectarian enclaves. “We entered Karakol Druse. There is no Jumblatt and no Hariri here,” a Shiite gunman told Associated Press Television News, referring to the top Sunni leader and his ally, Druse leader Walid Jumblatt. The military has sought to stay out of the feuding, fearing a repeat of its breakup in the long civil war that wracked this country — home to rival communities of Sunni and Shiite Muslims, various Christian sects and Druse.

The problem with this conflict is that there are so many influences that it is difficult to tamp things down, and things could swiftly go from bad to worse. Syria has never backed away from trying to project its influence in Lebanon, and has carried out clandestine bombings and killings of figures opposed to its influence in Lebanon, including the former Primer Minister who was killed in 2005.

Iranian elections between conservatives

Ashish — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 12:26:36 +0000

The reformists had their day under former President Khatami, but his administration led to 2 factors that have totally changed the situation after that, and for the worse. Khatami was the golden boy of the reformers, who wanted to break the stronghold of the clergy over Iranian Government policy and direction. However, over the period of his administration, he was unable to create much space for himself and would frequently fail to overcome the rigidities of the clergy, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the conservative Guardian Council. This eventually disillusioned the reformist section of society and led to their absenting themselves from the political process, thus playing into the hands of the conservative hardliners. At the time of the last election, the hardliners had enough of some of the efforts of the reformists and vowed to do what they could to reduce the effect of the reformists.
So, first the conservatives galvanized all their supporters and got many of them worried about the decline in the fervor of the Islamic revolution, leading to most of them turning up for voting. Secondly, since the conservatives controlled the prime levers of the power, including the Guardian Council (which okayed the nominations of candidates), they were able to prevent many reformers from standing for power. Together, these 2 factors reduced the power of the reformers:

Vote counting is under way in Iran after parliamentary elections which conservatives are expected to win after many reformists were barred. Partial results from 32 of the 290 seats at stake showed candidates allied to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad leading, the Associated Press reported.
The reformists seem to have given up the fight after many of their candidates were disqualified on the grounds of alleged lack of loyalty to Islamic values, says our correspondent. They made up the bulk of about 1,700 candidates barred from running by Iran’s Guardian Council – an unelected body of clerics and jurists that vets election candidates.

This is likely to get repeated in this election, an election where a large number of candidates are removed because this is one easy way to to do election fraud. One wonders how long the Iranian citizens will accept such a biased election.