The most complex problem in international politics today is with respect to Iran. And in this, the situation is not even about the recent elections, or the divided political powers in Iran; it is about the Iranian nuclear program. Iran has consistently maintained that it has a peaceful nuclear program, and this is allowed by the NPT and by the safe-guards under it. Most of the world believes that this is a cover, and the real intention of the Iranians is to bluster and negotiate while moving to a real nuclear weapons capability. Further complicating details is that the nuclear program is a nationalistic program in Iran, which sees the Israelis as having a very powerful local presence, based on their nuclear devices. In addition, there are 2 more nuclear capable states in the locality – India and Pakistan. All 3 nuclear states have got off pretty easily, and so has North Korea, and so Iran feels that it can build one. The Iranian nuclear program is under the control of the Supreme Leader, the cleric Ayatollah Khameini, and also under the control of the conservative President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
For many years now, there has been a concerted effort by the western powers, France, Britain, Germany, and the US about how to control and rollback the Iranian effort, but going the sanctions route with the UN Security Council supporting the sanctions is not easy, since Russia and China both have stakes in Iran, and are resisting efforts to have tougher sanctions.

continue reading "Iran nuclear issue: Inspection by the UN of the new complex"

When the Israeli offensive against Hamas started 18 days back, the comparisons with the 2006 campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon was the first thing that was raised. That campaign, even though caused huge amount of tactical damage to Hezbollah, was a strategic loss for Israel. Hezbollah got a reputation as a fighting force that was able to withstand the huge military advantage of Israel, and bring the much vaunted military machine to a halt (keep in mind that this is the same Israeli military that has consistently defeated the armed forces of its neighbors, right from the time of its birth in 1948). The result of this almost victory by Hezbollah (and managing to survive was seen as a victory) was its gaining in terms of gaining political clout in Lebanon. Now, Hamas is an organization that remains dedicated to the destruction of Israel (and has withstood a huge amount of external pressure to be seen as striking a deal with Israel).
So, there has been a lot of debate about the motives for the current Israeli campaign against Hamas. The chance of having to strike a deal that gives Hamas a cease-fire and the proclaiming power that it has managed to stop Israel in a direct fight was very high; and this was a risk that Israel would have to face. In addition, any fight between Israel and the Palestinians (even a terrorist organization such as Hamas) tends to inflame Muslim popular opinion all around the world and especially in the Muslim countries. Such inflammation of popular opinion tends to prevent the leaders of these countries from opposing Hamas even if they feel that Hamas is following wrong policies.

continue reading "The Gaza offensive likely to end ?"

This is not the first prisoner swap that Israel has done. In the past Israel has done this sort of swap many times, even exchanging the live prisoners that it holds for the bodies of its dead soldiers. However, this time was more traumatic for Israel, since it involved sending back a man whom Israel hates with a vengeance, Samir Qantar. Samir Qantar holds a special place in Israel, since he was convicted in 1979 for the killing of an entire family (Wikipedia), while leading a raid. His killing of the young daughter of the family was seen as particularly brutal, and he has been in jail ever since:

Hezbollah handed the bodies of two Israeli soldiers to the Red Cross on Wednesday to be exchanged for Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in a deal viewed as a triumph by the Lebanese Shi’ite guerrilla group. Many Israelis see it as a painful necessity, two years after the soldiers’ capture sparked a 34-day war with Hezbollah that killed about 1,200 people in Lebanon and 159 Israelis.

continue reading "Latest prisoner swap between Israel and Hezbollah"

This has got to be the shortest peace effort in years. Former President Jimmy Carter, who has been preaching peace and settlement for the past few years, probably took on his toughest effort; getting Hamas to say we do ‘recognize Israel’. So it was good to hear him come out and say triumphantly that Hamas seemed to be responsible people with a clarity about what they want, and they have agreed to recognize Israel. However, even before the flowers could stop raining down, the military (and most powerful) Syria based leader of Hamas, Khalid Meshaal, recanted all these terms and laid down the usual demands that Israel and the United States will not accept:

WASHINGTON, April 22 (UPI) — U.S. State Department officials disputed comments made by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter about Hamas’ views about Israel and peace. Hamas leaders, meanwhile, said they could accept a Palestinian state, but contradicted Carter’s statements about accepting Israel’s right to exist if approved by the Palestinian people, The Washington Times reported Tuesday.

continue reading "Hamas contradicts Carter, will not accept Israel"