World Political Blog » Missile

US proposes a huge amount of arms for Saudi Arabia, to counteract the growing power of Iran

Ashish — Sat, 18 Sep 2010 20:37:35 +0000

The United States is proposing a huge sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia. This is a sale that is worth around $60 billion, and primarily comprises of new F-15 fighter aircraft, military helicopters (both attack and troop transport helicopters). These are meant to increase the firepower of the Saudi Arabian forces, and also replace the older fighters in the Saudi arsenal. Saudi Arabia remains a strategic ally of the United States in the region, and given the problems both these countries have with Iran, this sale is meant to also convey a message to Iran. There is a long standing confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia (and several other Gulf states that are on the side of the Saudis). Iran is a leader of the Shias, while almost every country in the region is ruled by Sunnis. Further, Iran is ruled by a theocracy, while other countries are ruled by monarchies, or by a chosen few; and none of them would like to see an increase in the influence of the militant Islam in their countries (which will threaten the current rulers).
The strategy seemingly being followed by the United States along with the Gulf countries is to increase the military might of each of these countries, both in terms of offense and defense (with increased counter-missile technologies). This is meant to convey to Iran that even though it would gain some strategic increase through its nuclear program, it will have to face more powerful military neighbors, all of which are tied together with the United States, and even more surprisingly, with Israel. In the face of a common enemy such as Iran, even Israel and the Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait will make common cause.
The deal is currently making its way through the United States Congress, but there is very little chance that the deal will get stopped; the strategic imperative in such cases is very high and the push to make this deal through all approvals is very high. One can expect that in some time, these arms will start to make their way into the Saudi Arabian arsenal.

Baitullah Mehsud dead in a drone attack – and his successors are now fighting

Ashish — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 07:07:36 +0000

For Pakistan, Baitullah Mehsud has been one of the people who have caused it the most grief. Baitullah was the leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the leader of what has been called the Pakistani Taliban. He first became internationally famous when he was blamed for being behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, and in an ironic revenge, he was killed by a missile fired by a US operated drone when Benazir’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari is the President of Pakistan.
Baitullah was hiding in Waziristan, a rugged and difficult terrain that the Pakistani Army has always been reluctant to attack. This was even when Baitullah was blamed for a majority of the suicide attacks (including huge bomb attacks that made international news) that happened inside Pakistan, and yet he seemed to be always ahead of the Pakistani military. It was only in the recent past that the US operated drones (with their fearful missile launching capability) started striking fear in the hearts of these terrorists. The drone with their video coverage meant that these terrorist leaders always had to be on the move; and it was only recently that the drones also started tracking the Tehrik-i-Taliban; earlier the drones would be attacking the Al-Qaeda leadership hiding out in these remote areas as opposed to taking on the Pakistani Taleban. This had created a divergence between the US and Pakistan since Al-Qaeda was threatening Pakistani interest, while Baitullah was attacking Pakistani interests.
Now, the question is what are the next steps ? With recent reports of his potential successors having indulged in severe infighting and firing at each other, there is an opportunity for the Pakistani Government and military to step in and try to clean up. However, it seems much easier to try and strike a deal, since that would ensure that the hard steps of fighting in a difficult terrain can be avoided (link to article):

On an immediate basis, the Pakistan Army needs to decide whether or not to go ahead with a fully fledged military operation in South Waziristan, the headquarters of the TTP. But before that, Pakistan’s government, army and intelligence agencies will have to undergo some existential angst articulating Pakistan’s absolute stance on militancy. The outcome of that thought process will determine what happens next. The Pakistan Army should not make the mistake of sitting back and hoping that a battle of succession will lead to rampant infighting that will forever fragment the TTP.
The US, meanwhile, has expressed concern that Pakistan will try to negotiate with Baitullah’s successor. After all, reports suggest that Baitullah’s father-in-law Malik Ikramuddin had been in touch with government officials looking to strike a new peace deal. Striking now will indicate a genuine desire to rid Pakistan of militancy. Talking, on the other hand, will suggest that Pakistan is still engaged in a double game.

Past deals with terrorists have always led Pakistan into more trouble, with the terrorist seeing such deals as being reflective of the inability of Governments to fight with them (or of having the stomach to take losses), and using this time to regroup and build up into being a formidable force again. The international community also suspects the intention of the Government when it strikes such deal.

What does the Security Council do about the North Korean launch

Ashish — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 06:48:16 +0000

By all projections, the North Korean attempt was to try to put a satellite into space (not a missile test as feared). However, it is also known that the North Koreans are using the same vehicle for both a rocket launch, and a missile launch (and that is one of the fundamental problems of space technology – a lot of the technology has dual applications); and so if the rocket had been successful, then that would also have been a validation of a missile with supposedly sufficient range to reach parts of the United States. This is a scary prospect, since the North Koreans have been suspected of working to miniaturize their nuclear device so as to form it to be a warhead capable of fitting onto a missile. Further, the North Koreans have been caught in the past of collaborating with other countries on both missile and nuclear technology. The rocket overflew Japan, but then failed, and there was no payload launched into orbit. At some point in the future, if they are allowed to advance, the North Koreans will be able to make sufficient advances.
Unfortunately the North Koreans have not been susceptible to much pressure in the past (with China and Russia, key pressure capable nations, not willing to apply the required amount of pressure). They are already under United Nations sanctions for the previous nuclear test of 2006, and that does not seem to have much effect on the North Koreans; so the US is now worried about how to stop further work in this regard. Military threats also do not work since the North Koreans are capable of causing huge damage to Seoul, and maybe parts of Japan (link to article):

The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Japan met Monday for a second closed-door session to hammer out a response to North Korea’s weekend rocket launch in defiance of international opposition. But, as happened on Sunday following a called emergency session, there was no official statement from the council. Security Council Resolution 1718 was unanimously adopted in 2006, imposing a series of economic and commercial sanctions on North Korea. The resolution called for Pyongyang to conduct no further nuclear tests and to suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program, including launches.
However, not all Security Council members are onboard with Japan and the West. Russia and China are pushing for a technical assessment of the rocket launch before further actions are undertaken.
Earlier Monday, Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said it was important to avoid an “emotional knee-jerk reaction because what we do need is common strategy and not losing sight of the goal — and this is the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”

Russia and China are not fully behind the US and Japan in this area, partially because they do not quite like the concept of seeming to act to further the interests of the US. As a result, they will stick to the stand that if the North Koreans were seen to be launching a satellite, then there is no need to take any action.

North Korean satellite / rocket launch

Ashish — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 17:01:48 +0000

Pakistan has been in the news for a long time of having made a game of getting money from the US to handle its home-grown terrorist problem; after all, these are terrorists that the Pakistani state is valiantly fighting against and they need money to compensate for this. A classic case of gamesmanship whereby you get money else bad things may happen. Well, a state that has perfected this to a much higher degree is North Korea. North Korea is a failed state on any parameter. The state is a basket case economically, with large sections of its population having to face starvation on a regular basis. The state runs on the whims of the Dear Leader, Kim Jong Il, who has cultivated the image of a maverick, all the better to seem threatening to the world community.
Why does North Korea matter ? If it was located in some corner of Africa, it would not have mattered so much. Unfortunately, North Korea has one primary industry and export, that is of armaments. It exports missiles to many countries (even though these missiles are not as accurate, but they are still a threat). Further, it maintains a huge army that remains eyeball to eyeball with South Korea and US troops (and South Korea and North Korea are technically still not at peace with other even though the war between them ended more than 50 years back), and is in a position to threaten the South Korean capital, Seoul, in a matter of hours.

A couple of years back, North Korea crossed one major line by exploding a nuclear bomb, and also launched a long range rocket that crossed over Japanese airspace, drastically increasing tensions in the region. After a gap, North Korea is at it again, threatening to launch a communications satellite. Why would this matter ? Because it is believed that this launch is actually the test of a new rocket that will overfly Japanese territory. Japan has threatened that it will shoot down any debris that seems to be coming towards Japan, increasing the tension level manifold (link to article):

North Korea has completed preparations for launching what it says is “an experimental communications satellite,” the reclusive nation’s state news agency reported early Saturday. Western nations fear that North Korea plans a ballistic missile test rather than a satellite launch, but the administration’s special envoy to the Six-Party Talks, Stephen Bosworth, said it didn’t matter if the North Koreans were trying to put a satellite in space or testing a ballistic missile that could threaten Japan or the United States.
The U.S. Navy is monitoring the expected launch with at least four ships in the region around the Korean Peninsula and northern Japan, according to U.S. military officials. The ships — three destroyers and one cruiser — are capable of tracking and shooting down ballistic missiles using powerful Aegis radar systems aboard each vessel.

The situation remains tricky, akin to dealing with a neighborhood bully who has bombs that can threaten the neighborhood. Even countries such as China and Russia have not been able to exert much influence; and Japan cannot politically easily accept a North Korean rocket to overfly its territory or have debris landing inside the country.