World Political Blog » North Korea

What does the Security Council do about the North Korean launch

Ashish — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 06:48:16 +0000

By all projections, the North Korean attempt was to try to put a satellite into space (not a missile test as feared). However, it is also known that the North Koreans are using the same vehicle for both a rocket launch, and a missile launch (and that is one of the fundamental problems of space technology – a lot of the technology has dual applications); and so if the rocket had been successful, then that would also have been a validation of a missile with supposedly sufficient range to reach parts of the United States. This is a scary prospect, since the North Koreans have been suspected of working to miniaturize their nuclear device so as to form it to be a warhead capable of fitting onto a missile. Further, the North Koreans have been caught in the past of collaborating with other countries on both missile and nuclear technology. The rocket overflew Japan, but then failed, and there was no payload launched into orbit. At some point in the future, if they are allowed to advance, the North Koreans will be able to make sufficient advances.
Unfortunately the North Koreans have not been susceptible to much pressure in the past (with China and Russia, key pressure capable nations, not willing to apply the required amount of pressure). They are already under United Nations sanctions for the previous nuclear test of 2006, and that does not seem to have much effect on the North Koreans; so the US is now worried about how to stop further work in this regard. Military threats also do not work since the North Koreans are capable of causing huge damage to Seoul, and maybe parts of Japan (link to article):

The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Japan met Monday for a second closed-door session to hammer out a response to North Korea’s weekend rocket launch in defiance of international opposition. But, as happened on Sunday following a called emergency session, there was no official statement from the council. Security Council Resolution 1718 was unanimously adopted in 2006, imposing a series of economic and commercial sanctions on North Korea. The resolution called for Pyongyang to conduct no further nuclear tests and to suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program, including launches.
However, not all Security Council members are onboard with Japan and the West. Russia and China are pushing for a technical assessment of the rocket launch before further actions are undertaken.
Earlier Monday, Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said it was important to avoid an “emotional knee-jerk reaction because what we do need is common strategy and not losing sight of the goal — and this is the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”

Russia and China are not fully behind the US and Japan in this area, partially because they do not quite like the concept of seeming to act to further the interests of the US. As a result, they will stick to the stand that if the North Koreans were seen to be launching a satellite, then there is no need to take any action.

North Korean satellite / rocket launch

Ashish — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 17:01:48 +0000

Pakistan has been in the news for a long time of having made a game of getting money from the US to handle its home-grown terrorist problem; after all, these are terrorists that the Pakistani state is valiantly fighting against and they need money to compensate for this. A classic case of gamesmanship whereby you get money else bad things may happen. Well, a state that has perfected this to a much higher degree is North Korea. North Korea is a failed state on any parameter. The state is a basket case economically, with large sections of its population having to face starvation on a regular basis. The state runs on the whims of the Dear Leader, Kim Jong Il, who has cultivated the image of a maverick, all the better to seem threatening to the world community.
Why does North Korea matter ? If it was located in some corner of Africa, it would not have mattered so much. Unfortunately, North Korea has one primary industry and export, that is of armaments. It exports missiles to many countries (even though these missiles are not as accurate, but they are still a threat). Further, it maintains a huge army that remains eyeball to eyeball with South Korea and US troops (and South Korea and North Korea are technically still not at peace with other even though the war between them ended more than 50 years back), and is in a position to threaten the South Korean capital, Seoul, in a matter of hours.

A couple of years back, North Korea crossed one major line by exploding a nuclear bomb, and also launched a long range rocket that crossed over Japanese airspace, drastically increasing tensions in the region. After a gap, North Korea is at it again, threatening to launch a communications satellite. Why would this matter ? Because it is believed that this launch is actually the test of a new rocket that will overfly Japanese territory. Japan has threatened that it will shoot down any debris that seems to be coming towards Japan, increasing the tension level manifold (link to article):

North Korea has completed preparations for launching what it says is “an experimental communications satellite,” the reclusive nation’s state news agency reported early Saturday. Western nations fear that North Korea plans a ballistic missile test rather than a satellite launch, but the administration’s special envoy to the Six-Party Talks, Stephen Bosworth, said it didn’t matter if the North Koreans were trying to put a satellite in space or testing a ballistic missile that could threaten Japan or the United States.
The U.S. Navy is monitoring the expected launch with at least four ships in the region around the Korean Peninsula and northern Japan, according to U.S. military officials. The ships — three destroyers and one cruiser — are capable of tracking and shooting down ballistic missiles using powerful Aegis radar systems aboard each vessel.

The situation remains tricky, akin to dealing with a neighborhood bully who has bombs that can threaten the neighborhood. Even countries such as China and Russia have not been able to exert much influence; and Japan cannot politically easily accept a North Korean rocket to overfly its territory or have debris landing inside the country.

North Korea again threatens to go nuclear

Ashish — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:43:47 +0000

The North Koreans must be the one set of negotiators who have caused the Bush Administration the maximum problems. When the Bush Administration came to power 8 long years ago, they heavily criticized the deal that the Clinton administration made with the North Koreans where the North Koreans agreed to cap their nuclear activities in exchange for more facilities and guarantees of energy. When the Bush Administration came to power, they announced that the world has changed, states that stand against the US will not be treated lightly, and they will be the one that bring the North Koreans to heel. And then 9/11 happened; the Bush administration got rid of the Afghan Taleban and Saddam Hussein in Iraq, but North Korea still remains as unpredictable as ever.
As per North Korea, the current situation has arisen because the previous agreement where North Korea will be taken off the list of nations that support terrorism has not been followed, and hence it is reverting back to having an ongoing nuclear program:

North Korea has made another move toward possibly restarting its suspended nuclear program, the U.N. nuclear agency reports. At the reclusive nation’s request, the International Atomic Energy Agency has removed surveillance equipment and seals from the Yongbyon nuclear facility, agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. The move clears the way for North Korea to reintroduce nuclear material to the facility. The North has told the IAEA that it will do that in a week or so.
Last week, a South Korean news agency reported that North Korea was restoring a reactor at Yongbyon nuclear complex and no longer wanted to be removed from a U.S. list of countries that sponsor terrorism. But a senior U.S. diplomat has said the announcement could simply be a bargaining ploy in the long-running negotiations. The U.S. had seen no indications North Korea was actually rebuilding its reactor, the diplomat said. North Korea had agreed to disable the Yongbyon nuclear complex by October in exchange for a pledge from the U.S. to lift some sanctions and remove North Korea from a list of countries that sponsor terrorism.

When dealing with the North Koreans, it sometimes seems that the Bush Administration is all at sea. In the midst of the attempts by the Bush Administration (and the 6 nation effort) to try to cap the North Korean nuclear efforts, the North Koreans blew a hole into this effort and tested a nuclear bomb, becoming a declared nuclear bomb. One can only wonder what the North Koreans will do next, especially when it is not clear who the current leadership of North Korea actually is.